Hopeful signs on health care (1)
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1 week, 3 days
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This is very big news. One of the key questions about the new Democratic majority was whether Congress would try to play it safe, backing down on big ideas about reform, especially on health care. You can view the whole chorus about how we’re still a “center-right nation” as an attempt by the usual suspects [...]
Stimulus math (wonkish) (4)
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1 week, 4 days
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I wrote this morning's column partly because I had a hunch that the Obama people might be thinking too small on stimulus. Now I have more than a hunch – I've heard an unreliable rumor! So let's talk about stimulus math, as I see it. Actually, before I get to the math, some concepts. Nearly every [...]
Bigger than Barack (2)
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Did progressives get a mandate from last week’s election? Lots of people would like to claim that they didn’t — that we’re still a “center-right nation.” And one of the assertions you hear to back that claim is that Obama’s victory wasn’t matched by down-ticket Democratic success. Except it’s not true: down-ticket Democrats actually did [...]
Fiscal FDR - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog (2)
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In the world according to the WSJ, FDR pursued a decade of “pump-priming” fiscal expansion, but failed to achieve anything. The actual story is a bit different.To get a bit more of that story, I’ve rolled my own version of the full-employment federal deficit for the period 1929-1946 (to take it though the war years). I’ve assumed that the 1929-41 trend represents potential real GDP, and that federal revenues, other things equal, would have moved ...
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Piaw said:
Once again, countering the anti-FDR/keynesian propaganda produced by the WSJ. This is important stuff, folks!
New Deal economics (7)
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1 week, 6 days
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Everybody’s talking new New Deal these days — and, predictably, the FDR-haters are out in force, with all the usual claims about FDR having actually made the Great Depression worse. (To the right, way back when, FDR was “That Man.” Now Obama is “that one.” Interesting.) Eric Rauchway is all over this. Basically, the anti-FDR argument [...]
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ubernerd83 said:
I really wish I had taken econ in college...
Stupid fiscal tricks (3)
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So I caught Governor Schwarzenegger on TV, talking fiscal crisis, and found myself thinking about fiscal stupidity. Economists may remember that the president of the European Commission once called the eurozone’s “stability pact,” which was supposed to set a rigid limit on budget deficits, the “stupidity pact” — because it would have forced tax hikes and [...]
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Marshall Sponder said:
Pretty good point Paul .... and you know, I kinda wish Obama picked you for Treasury Secretary - though I realize it won't happen because your views would really antagonize the Republican Right and the Conservative base. Perhaps the best we can hope for is Financial Management by someone who will listen to what Paul Krugman has to say. Right now, the Fiscal Conservatives are still worried about the balanced budget - though, honestly, will the way things are going ..... that should not be our main concern, and Paul Krugman is right, we need to keep the country running - else we may all be out of work.So, let's not have a bunch of "robotic" calls to balance things just now - we're heading right into a Depression - all over the world, and what we need is clear thinking - insight and analysis of what really went wrong, what really works, not some "Wacko" Conservative or Moral concerns, which, haven't worked to well, even when they were enacted.
By their enemies you shall know them (1)
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Gurk! ZIRP! - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog (6)
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2 weeks, 1 day
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That’s Zero Interest Rate Policy — which is now, in the wake of this morning’s terrible employment report, inevitable. Yes, we’re Japan. Add to this the news of a retail sales collapse, and we’re looking grim, grim, grim. Monetary policy obviously isn’t enough. It’s time to raise Keynes: we need big fiscal stimulus, now now now. Any way [...]
In which I get petty and silly (1)
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2 weeks, 1 day
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Sarah Palin failed in her mission: Sales at Neiman Marcus, the luxury department store, dropped nearly 28 percent in October compared with the same month last year. No Tags
Mandate (1)
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2 weeks, 2 days
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A magnificent victory for Barack Obama. And bear in mind that the campaign, in its final stages, was really about different philosophies of governing. This wasn’t like the 2004 campaign, which was essentially fought over fake issues — Bush running on national security and social issues, then claiming that he had a mandate to privatize [...]
Meanwhile, in an alternative universe Known as the Wall Street Journal opinion pages (4)
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2 weeks, 2 days
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Yes, George W. Bush’s status as the most disliked man ever to occupy the White House shows that America was not worthy of him. And attacks on Bush gave aid and comfort to his enemies — unlike the firehose of abuse that will be directed against President Obama, which will of course be an expression of true patriotism.
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Piaw said:
I definitely expect the WSJ editorial pages to attack Obama.
Too much explanation (2)
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2 weeks, 3 days
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I’m reading a lot about why Obama won, with long lists of stuff — it was the Palin effect, it was the skill of the Obama campaign, it was the 50-state strategy, etc.. At the risk of being a party-pooper, I’ll second Andrew Gelman: there’s not much evidence in the vote for anything besides a broad [...]
The monster years (20)
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Last night wasn’t just a victory for tolerance; it wasn’t just a mandate for progressive change; it was also, I hope, the end of the monster years. What I mean by that is that for the past 14 years America’s political life has been largely dominated by, well, monsters. Monsters like Tom DeLay, who suggested that [...]
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Jonathan said:
I like Krugman's coinage: the Monster Years. 92 More days.
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Steve said:
I can get in bed w/o looking under it first.
Time and chance (2)
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It was Lehman wot did it There will be endless bloviating over the significance of today’s results; I plan to do some bloviating myself. But we shouldn’t ignore the importance of chance events, or at least the chance timing of events. Without 9/11, what would have become of George W. Bush? My guess is that he [...]
Meanwhile, in the economy - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog (2)
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2 weeks, 4 days
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ISM factory gauge falls off a cliff – worst number since 1982. We need a government of national unity to deal with the economic crisis, starting at, oh, around 8:45 PM tomorrow. No Tags
Alas, Doug Holtz-Eakin (1)
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OK, so John McCain's chief economic spokesman, who I thought did a good job at the CBO, issued a statement on the GDP report: Today's announcement that third quarter GDP fell at a 0.3 percent rate confirms what Americans already knew: the economy is shrinking. Barack Obama would accelerate this dangerous course. According to the independent [...]
Eastern Europe 2008 = Southeast Asia 1997 (2)
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From Bloomberg: Foreign-denominated loans helped fuel eastern European economies including Poland, Romania and Ukraine, funding home purchases and entrepreneurship after the region emerged from communism. The elimination of such lending is magnifying the global credit crunch and threatening to stall the expansion of some of Europe's fastest-growing economies. The key to the Asian crisis - [...]
Still returning The Return (1)
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The mother of all currency crises (5)
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3 weeks, 6 days
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I invented currency crises. No, really — not the thing itself, of course, but I did publish the first paper in the modern academic literature on the subject, back in 1979. And as I like to say, business has been good ever since. But I never anticipated anything like what’s happening now. I’ve been reading reports from [...]
