Obama wants to raise taxes, this is not a myth. He lied about a net spending reduction. The worst thing to do going into a recession is to raise taxes. Ronald Reagan was in a similar situation and he CUT taxes on the rich. Look, Obama wants to give taxes back to people who do not pay taxes, that is welfare, and it is not sustainable. You could argue that people who make below a ...

Add to iTunes | Add to YouTube | Add to Google | RSS Feed How many remote controls do you have lying around? I’m sure there are several. Do you have one for your computer… one that can control elements on your screen, much like a mouse would? If you have an iPhone, you certainly do have one. There’s a new App out for $6.00, called the Air Mouse, that will let you turn your ...

I didn’t mean to! … Ok yes I did. http://www.opera.... I like Opera but it has not received as much ‘security attention’ as Firefox or Internet Explorer. Opera is pretty big in the mobile browser market, so this will probably be changing real soon. Web application flaws and attack techniques are growing everyday but the browser itself is still an excellent and reliable attack vector. In this case the vulnerability is based on a ‘specially ...

簡單易明次按,CDS,危機來源過程 你知道美國金融危機有多嚴重嗎?對金融危機最普遍的官方解釋是次貸問題，然而次貸總共不過幾千億，而美國政府救市資金早已到了萬億以上，為什麼危機還是看不到頭？ 有文章指出危機的根源是金融機構採用「槓桿」交易；另一些專家指出金融危機的背後是62萬億的信用違約掉期（Credit Default Swap, CDS）。那麼，次貸，槓桿和CDS之間究竟是什麼關係？ 它們之間通過什麼樣的相互作用產生了今天的金融危機？ 為通俗易懂起見，我們使用了幾個假想的例子。 一、 槓桿： 目前，許多投資銀行為了賺取暴利，採用20－30倍槓桿操作，假設一個銀行A自身資產為30億，30倍槓桿就是900億。也就是說，這個銀行A以30億資產為抵押去借900億的資金用於投資，假如投資盈利5％，那麼A就獲得45億的盈利，相對於A自身資產而言，這是150％的暴利。反過來，假如投資虧損5％，那麼銀行A賠光了自己的全部資產還欠15億。 二、 CDS合同： 由於槓桿操作高風險，所以按照正常的規定，銀行不進行這樣的冒險操作。所以就有人想出一個辦法，把槓桿投資拿去做「保險」。這種保險就叫CDS。比如，銀行A為了逃避槓桿風險就找到了機構B。機構B可能是另一家銀行，也可能是保險公司，諸如此類。A對B說，你幫我的貸款做違約保險怎麼樣，我每年付你保險費5千萬，連續10年，總共5億，假如我的投資沒有違約，那麼這筆保險費你就白拿了，假如違約，你要為我賠償。A想，如果不違約，我可以賺45億，這裡面拿出5億用來做保險，我還能淨賺40億。如果有違約，反正有保險來賠。所以對A而言這是一筆只賺不賠的生意。B是一個精明的人，沒有立即答應A的邀請，而是回去做了一個統計分析，發現違約的情況不到1％。如果做一百家的生意，總計可以拿到500億的保險金，如果其中一家違約，賠償額最多不過50億，即使兩家違約，還能賺400億。A,B雙方都認為這筆買賣對自己有利，因此立即拍板成交，皆大歡喜。 三、CDS市場： B做了這筆保險生意之後，C在旁邊眼紅了。C就跑到B那邊說，你把這100個CDS賣給我怎麼樣，每個合同給你2億，總共200億。B想，我的400億要10年才能拿到，現在一轉手就有200億，而且沒有風險，何樂而不為，因此B和C馬上就成交了。這樣一來，CDS就像股票一樣流到了金融市場之上，可以交易和買賣。實際上C拿到這批CDS之後，並不想等上10年再收取200億，而是把它掛牌出售，標價220億；D看到這個產品，算了一下，400億減去220億，還有180億可賺，這是「原始股」，不算貴，立即買了下來。一轉手，C賺了20億。從此以後，這些CDS就在市場上反覆的抄，現在CDS的市場總值已經抄到了62萬億美元。 四、次貸： 上面A,B,C,D,E,F….都在賺大錢，那麼這些錢到底從那裡冒出來的呢？從根本上說，這些錢來自A以及同A相仿的投資人的盈利。而他們的盈利大半來自美國的次級貸款。人們說次貸危機是由於把錢借給了窮人。 筆者對這個說法不以為然。筆者以為，次貸主要是給了普通的美國房產投資人。這些人的經濟實力本來只夠買自己的一套住房，但是看到房價快速上漲，動起了房產投機的主意。他們把自己的房子抵押出去，貸款買投資房。這類貸款利息要在8％－9％以上，憑他們自己的收入很難對付，不過他們可以繼續把房子抵押給銀行，借錢付利息，空手套白狼。 此時A很高興，他的投資在為他賺錢；B也很高興，市場違約率很低，保險生意可以繼續做；後面的C,D,E,F等等都跟著賺錢。 五、次貸危機： 房價漲到一定的程度就漲不上去了，後面沒人接盤。此時房產投機人急得像熱鍋上的螞蟻。房子賣不出去，高額利息要不停的付，終於到了走頭無路的一天，把房子甩給了銀行。此時違約就發生了。 此時A感到一絲遺憾，大錢賺不著了，不過也虧不到那裡，反正有B做保險。B也不擔心，反正保險已經賣給了C。 那麼現在這份CDS保險在那裡呢，在G手裡。G剛從F手裡花了300億買下 了100個CDS，還沒來得及轉手，突然接到消息，這批CDS被降級，其中有20個違約，大大超出原先估計的1％到2％的違約率。每個違約要支付50億的保險金，總共支出達1000億。加上300億CDS收購費，G的虧損總計達1300億。雖然G是全美排行前10名的大機構，也經不起如此巨大的虧損。因此G瀕臨倒閉。 六、金融危機： 如果G倒閉，那麼A花費5億美元買的保險就泡了湯，更糟糕的是，由於A採用了槓桿原理投資，根據前面的分析，A賠光全部資產也不夠還債。因此A立即面臨破產的危險。除了A之外，還有A2，A3,…,A20，統統要準備倒閉。因此G,A,A2,…,A20一起來到美國財政部長面前，一把鼻涕一把眼淚地遊說，G萬萬不能倒閉，它一倒閉大家都完了。財政部長心一軟，就把G給國有化了，此後A,…,A20的保險金總計1000億美元全部由美國納稅人支付。 七、美元危機： 上面講到的100個CDS的市場價是300億。而CDS市場總值是62萬億，假設其中有10％的違約，那麼就有6萬億的違約CDS。這個數字是300億的200倍。如果說美國政府收購價值300億的CDS之後要賠出1000億。那麼對於剩下的那些違約CDS，美國政府就要賠出20萬億。如果不賠，就要看著A20,A21,A22等等一個接一個倒閉。無論採取什麼措施，美元大貶值已經不可避免。 以上計算所用的假設和數字同實際 情況會有出入，但美國金融危機的嚴重性無法低估。

Bush in Feb 2008: President Bush said Thursday that the country is not headed into a recession and, despite expressing concern about slowing economic growth, rejected for now any additional stimulus efforts. “We’ve acted robustly,” he said. “We’ll see the effects of this pro-growth package,” Bush told reporters at a White House news conference. “I know there’s a lot of, here in Washington people are trying to - stimulus package two - and all that ...

Just saw this great post on 6 Reasons You Should Invest in Internet Marketing During the Recession from Pete Caputa at HubSpot. He says just about everything I'd want to say to our clients right now. Take a few moments to read it. Here's a great passage:Constant Improvement. If you're doing the same thing you did to advertise and market your business as you did 25 years ago, you have a problem. Your problem is ...

Welcome our new socialist overlords. We can has universal healthcare now? NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The Federal Reserve announced a new program to help the battered market for short-term business loans - taking its closest step yet to lending directly to businesses. The program addresses commercial paper, a form of short-term funding that is crucial to many businesses operations. In the past month, the amount of money outstanding in commercial paper loans has fallen 11% ...

I have some good news and some bad news. Every year, I submit multiple sessions to GDC, ranging from lectures, to round tables to panel discussions. Every year, the lectures are rejected, although usually late enough in the process to get the polite "you almost made it" letter. The bad news is that my lecture for GDC 2009, "This is Your Brain On Games", which I rate as the best submission I've made thus far, ...

FAIL! Don’t laugh when you see the title of a new book that challenges the elite’s view that President Bush is no brainiac: The Leadership Genius of George W. Bush. Really. “We did it,” says coauthor Carolyn Thompson, a leadership expert, “because he’s so widely underestimated and because everybody thinks he’s not what he really is.” That would be Master Leader, she and James Ware conclude in their scholarly study. More in-depth than others like ...

As many of you know, I am one of the owners of EndGame in Oakland, Ca. Our store is very heavily driven upon an event based community model. We host a variety of different games on different nights, and these events tend to ebb and flow over time…with one exception: Dungeons and Dragons. For the past five years we have hosted the RPGA on Monday nights. With very few exceptions, this hearty group of adventurers ...

Here is my answer: NO WAY. NONE. ZERO. FORGET IT. I am a follower of the Lord Jesus Christ. I’m with him. It is the only way I pray. Cal Thomas shares that a group of Virginia Police Chaplains have really take this stand: IF YOU ARE A CHRISTIAN AND SOMEONE ASKED YOU NOT TO PRAY PUBLICLY IN JESUS’ NAME, YOU PROBABLY WOULD REFUSE. THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT AT LEAST SIX VOLUNTARY VIRGINIA STATE POLICE ...

Translated from a newspaper in Norway: At the airport in Miami things were hectic as usual, with long lines at the check-in counters. When it was finally Mary’s turn and she had placed her luggage on the baggage line, she got the message that would crush her bubbling feeling of happiness. -You’ll have to pay a 103 dollar surcharge if you want to bring both those suitcases to Norway, the man behind the counter said. ...

From Wikipedia: Nucular is an ad hoc spelling of an incorrect pronunciation of the word nuclear, representing the IPA: /ˈnjuːkjələr/ (NEW-cue-lurr) pronunciation of that word instead of the correct /ˈnjuːkliːɚ/ (NEW-klee-urr). This pronunciation is incorrect, although some dictionaries recognize it because of its increasing usage.[

(via Arbroath)

Add to iTunes | Add to YouTube | Add to Google | RSS Feed What is television anymore? How do you define television? Is it a piece of hardware that allows you to watch shows? Or is it serial episodes that can be attained from a variety of sources? No matter how you define it, it’s content. And no matter how you get to the content, you’ll still enjoy it. Netflix and Starz has recently ...

I just spent several splendid days at the Ajax Experience in Boston, MA and was asked to deliver a talk about the YUI. Here’s what I went for: I wanted to make very clear that while YUI is a library much like the others, the real power of it lies in the control it gives you over the whole frontend development process from start to end. The CSS components make sure that creating CSS based ...

Every time I see this map it just gets better and better! Posted in Presidential Candidates

From yesterday’s tomorrow for a better today.