Daily Palin (1)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
2 days, 11 hours
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Nearly as many people watched Palin last night as watched Obama last Thursday.But some of those people were Obama supporters -- and they're donating to their candidate in large amounts.A Media Curves analysis found voters' perceptions of the McCain-Palin ticket improving significantly after watching her speech.But focus groups in Nevada and Michigan were less impressed.Rasmussen's voters think Obama is more qualified than Palin -- but not by an especially wide margin.And SurveyUSA's voters like Palin ...
Palin's Overreach (2)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
3 days, 7 hours
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In my articulation of Sarah Palin's goals for her speech tonight, I suggested that "it will be imperative for Palin not to overreach." The rest of her prepared remarks look like they should be pretty effective, but this is probably an exception:And since our opponents in this presidential election seem to look down on that experience, let me explain to them what the job involves. I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a ...
Guess Who's a Celebrity Now? (11)
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Today's Polls, 9/3 (2)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
3 days, 12 hours
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It's pretty quiet on the polling front today. The only numbers out are the national trackers: Barack Obama now has a 6-point lead in Gallup, down from 8 points yesterday, and a 5-point lead in Rasmussen, a tick down from 6. These polls will not really reflect any happenings at the GOP convention, since Monday's events were essentially canceled, and since Tuesday's occurred to late in the evening to be reflected in most interviewing.Even though ...
Palin's Goal Tonight: No Potatoe (1)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
3 days, 20 hours
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Sarah Palin's speech tonight exists within a weird middle ground between fairly low expectations and a fairly high degree of difficulty.Voters have questions about Palin's background, her governing philosophy, her readiness to lead, and her position on a variety of specific issues. It will be impossible to address all of these within the context of a single speech -- particularly for someone who had never spoken to a national audience before last Friday. On the ...
Today's Polls, 9/2 (2)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
4 days, 12 hours
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It looks like Barack Obama may have gotten his convention bounce after all:A large number of national polls have come out within the past 24-48 hours, most of which had conducted a survey close enough to the beginning of the Democratic convention to provide for a direct comparison. These polls show Obama having gained between 2 and 8 points since before the convention began, or an average of 4.4 points. Although this is slightly below ...
The Essential Difference (7)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
5 days, 1 hour
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Think of an American president being inaugurated. What image comes to mind?Almost certianly this one, eh?This picture embodies what is perhaps the essential difference between the qualifications for the presidency and the qualifications for the vice presidency. In a perfect world, we would all like a president who is Ready on Day One (TM); it is not uncommon for a newly-elected president to face a major crisis almost immediately upon taking office. But more commonly, ...
Today's Polls, 9/1 (1)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
5 days, 11 hours
ago
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By popular request -- and owing to the exceptionally complicated dynamics at this point in the election cycle -- we have dropped the "convention bounce adjustment" that our model had been implementing over the course of the past week. However, keep in mind that the model is still designed to hedge against short-term fluctuations in the polls in the number of ways. Thus, while we show the race trending very slightly toward Obama over the ...
What's Wrong With This Sentence? (1)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
5 days, 12 hours
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Politico:Besieged by blog rumors about her 17-year-old daughter, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin — named Friday as running mate of John McCain — released a statement Monday saying her daughter is pregnant and plans to marry the father.What does one thing -- the news of Bristol Palin's pregnancy -- really have to do with the other -- scurrilous rumors that were never pushed by any mainstream US media outlet, nor by anyone remotely connected to the ...
FiveThirtyEight.com: Sarah Palin: Compassionate Conservative (4)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
6 days, 2 hours
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The essential appeal of Sarah Palin can be summarized in two words: compassionate conservative. She is perhaps as socially conservative as any politician ever placed onto a major-party ticket -- something which the right very much notices, and appreciates. But she does not necessarily come across that way to voters who might be turned off by such positions. Perhaps it is her unassuming style, and perhaps it is her strong biography; people see Palin as ...
Gustav Could Be Boon to GOP (1)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
6 days, 9 hours
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The conventional wisdom seems to hold that Hurricane Gustav, expected to make landfall at some point within the next 12-24 hours, could quite literally be a disaster for the Republicans as they attempt to hold their National Convention in St. Paul. I am here to present a devil's advocate case that the opposite may be true.But firstly, a little bit more context on the storm. I would suggest that you all bookmark Jeff Masters' blog ...
Women View Palin More Skeptically than Men (1)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
1 week
ago
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According to fresh data from Rasmussen Reports, Sarah Palin's selection is a mixed bag. Voters have a favorable impression of her by a 53/26 margin; however, by a 29/44 margin, they do not believe that she is ready to be President. Needless to say, the PR battle over the next couple of weeks will involve the McCain campaign playing up her biography, and the Obama campaign playing down her readiness.At this stage, it is not ...
Sarah Palin Thoughts, Revised and Extended (4)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
1 week, 1 day
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Wow. Judging by the amount of traffic and commentary on the couple of Sarah Palin threads I posted earlier, people are absolutely fascinated by this story. I don't think we can pass this off with the usual excuse about a VP choice not mattering. This is another fascinating element in a fascinating election -- I just don't think we have any real idea of how it's going to play out.One thing we do have to ...
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Karoli said:
Not with the security of our country at stake. Sorry, no.
Palin: It's Not Really About Experience (2)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
1 week, 1 day
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So why is the Obama campaign going for the jugular and critiquing Sarah Palin's experience? Shouldn't they be happy enough that the experience argument was essentially taken off the table by this selection?Because it isn't really an argument about experience per se. It's an argument about whether she meets the basic threshold test of voters feeling comfortable with having her as President. Experience is a part of that, but so are essentially the aesthetics of ...
Source: It's Not Pawlenty (3)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
1 week, 2 days
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Just repeating what I reported in the Twitter thread, but I have a trustworthy source telling me that the GOP VP nominee will be someone other than Tim Pawlenty.That's all I can report to you because that's all that I know. My source believes he knows the identity of the actual VP nominee but will not tell me who it is. None of this is 100%. It's possible that I'm being played, and it's possible ...
...and Speaking of Head-Fakes (3)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate) (48)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
1 week, 2 days
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That's what I think we got from Barack Obama at Invesco Field tonight. A gigantic head-fake. The Republicans were probably anticipating a more abstract, uplifting, grandiose address -- one more in line with the Obama caricature, and one which would make for easy critique in the context of the grandiose setting of an NFL stadium. Instead, Obama's speech was specific, hard-hitting, and functional. It wasn't a speech intended for the Rhetoric Hall of Fame; it ...
Gallup Shows an Initial Convention Bounce for Obama (2)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
1 week, 2 days
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Fresh numbers in from Gallup show Barack Obama emerging with a 6-point lead over his Republican rival.Rasmussen does not yet show a discernible bounce -- their poll still has the race tied. But they also hint that, based on a review of their day-by-day results, an Obama bounce may be coming:Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average--shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That ...
Barack Obama Officially Becomes Democratic Nominee for Presdient (1)
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Today's Polls, 8/26 (1)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (57)
1 week, 4 days
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There is a lot of nervous buzz today about the national tracking polls. Gallup now gives John McCain a 2-point lead, the first time he has had an advantage of any amount since late May. Rasmussen, meanwhile, has the race converging back into a tie, after having shown Barack Obama ahead by 3 points yesterday.This tracking polling will NOT reflect any convention bounce (or its absence). These polling firms concluded their interviews by mid-evening, before ...
