Tweetag: Tag-Based Search For Twitter (1)
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Robin Wauters (1073)
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Ajax Blog (156)
3 days, 6 hours
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Erick recently wrote: We all know how tagging makes the Web a richer place (by tapping into people’s desire to categorize things and share those categories, ad-hoc though they may be, with everyone else). Tagging brings a bottoms-up order to the Web by making information more searchable and thus easier to find. Now it is time to start tagging the world. The real world. Enter Tweetag, a brand new way to search Twitter, or ‘browse ...
Pirates Strike Again, Seize Grain Ship (4)
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Noah Shachtman (333)
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Danger Room (427)
4 days, 16 hours
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Somali pirates have struck again, seizing a Hong Kong cargo ship loaded with wheat and bound for Iran. The hijacking of the Delight comes on the heels of the pirates' biggest score yet: a 1080-foot Saudi supertanker, packed with $100 million worth of oil. It's now anchored off of the Somali coast. Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Michael Mullen told reporters he was "stunned" by the capture of the Sirius Star tanker. "These [pirates]... have proven ...
Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189 (26)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate Silver) (843)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (947)
2 weeks, 5 days
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It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in America. The last polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain. Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory.Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official ...
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Pradeep said:
One final look at Nate's projections.Also, his guide to election night: http://www.newsweek.com/id/167186
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Ontario Emperor said:
Originally shared by Louis Gray.
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Jon of SMA said:
I hope that this is close to the final outcome, I would like to see a strong statement that we want to take our country back.
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Josh Jenkins said:
No more needs to be said. You will have your president.
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Alexandar said:
1 in 100 chance of a horrible outcome today
Today's Polls, 11/3 (PM Edition) (71)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate Silver) (843)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (947)
2 weeks, 5 days
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With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House.The national polls have all consolidated into a range of roughly Obama +7. That is right about where our model sees the race as well, giving Obama a 6.8 point advantage in its composite of ...
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Jackson said:
I was surprised by that 1.9% number when I loaded the site ... they've stayed a good deal higher than that regardless of good news for Obama in headlines over recent weeks.
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jjrussell said:
Six hours before polls open and the oracle of the poll stats, Nate Silver, and his magical mathematical model show Obama with a 98.1% chance of winning. If this goes wrong I will never add anything ever again in protest.
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Eric said:
McCain considered to have 1.9% chance of winning tomorrow !
FiveThirtyEight.com: Today's Polls, 11/1 - Obama 96.2% likely to win. (23)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate Silver) (843)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (947)
3 weeks
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This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.I should caution that by far the most likely scenario is that Obama wins some relatively decisive victory of anywhere from 3-12 points in the popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote by anything in this range, he will find plenty of blue territory, accumulating ...
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Kevin Fox said:
The most concise 'how to know when Obama's won' cheat sheet I've seen.
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Anna said:
For all the worriers out there (I include myself), Nate breaks down Obama's path to victory.I still feel like I'm going to puke until this is all over, however.
Today's Polls, 10/30 (7)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate Silver) (843)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (947)
3 weeks, 2 days
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Man, I thought I trained you guys better than this.There is a lot of consternation in my inbox about two polls. One, from Mason-Dixon, shows John McCain just 4 points down in Pennsylvania. The other, from FOX News, shows McCain down just 3 points nationwide.Let's start with the Pennsylvania result. Mason-Dixon is a pretty strong pollster. So, however, are many others from among the literally dozen or so agencies that have conducted polling within Pennsylvania ...
Today's Polls, 10/28 (9)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate Silver) (843)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (947)
3 weeks, 4 days
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Stop me if you've heard this one before. Although the national trackers look slightly stronger for John McCain than they did a couple days ago, Barack Obama once again had an exceptionally good day in the state-level numbers.To review the national polling situation briefly: Gallup and Research 2000 moved toward McCain, and IBD/TIPP moved toward Obama; the other five trackers were essentially flat. Among the one-off national polls, Pew and ARG moved toward Obama, and ...
Today's Polls, 10/27 (12)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate Silver) (843)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (947)
3 weeks, 5 days
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John McCain is making no progress in his pursuit of the White House. Our model now projects Barack Obama to win 351 electoral votes to John McCain's 187, and to win the Electoral College 96.7 percent of the time to McCain's 3.3 percent. Both numbers are unchanged from yesterday.Let's take a look at the polls, and then run through a couple of big-picture themes:Theme #1. If the national polls are tightening, there is no evidence ...
Today's Polls, 10/26 (9)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate Silver) (843)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (947)
3 weeks, 6 days
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While there are a few surprises here and there, once again the theme of today's polls is stability in the race for the White House.John McCain narrowed his gap significantly in today's Zogby tracking poll, drawing from 9.5 points behind to 5.3. As you probably know, I have a signifiacnt critique of Zogby's weighting mechanism, which assumes that the partisan identification breakdown will be roughly equal to 2004, when about the same number of Democrats ...
Today's Polls, 10/16 (3)
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Today's Polls, 9/26 (1)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate Silver) (843)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (947)
1 month, 4 weeks
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On the eve of the first Presidential Debate, Barack Obama is perhaps in as strong a position in the polls as he has been all year, now projecting to win the election 74.7 percent of the time. Both the state and the national polls that have come out within the past 48 hours have generally been quite favorable to Obama, and suggest that he may gained an additional point or so above and beyond his ...
Today's Polls, 9/23 (1)
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noreply@blogger.com (Nate Silver) (843)
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (947)
2 months
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Barack Obama has had another strong day in the state polling, holding leads in the states where he needs to hold them. John McCain, however, was able to hedge against this by ticking upward by a point or so in the national tracking polls, making the overall trend about neutral. Still, there is a lot of eye candy here for Democrats:The PPP and Quinnipiac polls make it three surveys in a row where Obama has ...
