My fundamental strength as a venture investor is having a clear view of what the future will look like (at least as regards my little niche of the industry.) My fundamental weakness has always been not being entirely sure how we get from where we are today to that future. I suppose there's a name for that, my type of goal-oriented thinking. I am thinking about that today because Niki Scevak over at Bronte Media ...

Two weeks ago, Nick Denton hosted a party on the top of his newish Gawker offices, where he told us he was "disaster planning." Here's what that looks like: He's laying off 19 people at his network of 12 sites, but is doubling down at some of his stronger titles, where he will bring on 10 people. Among those cut: Three of Valleywag's 5 staffers. Among those hired: Longtime media reporter Gabriel Snyder, who wil ...

I’m watching myself present at the Inbound Marketing Summit from a few weeks back in Boston. This was a brand new presentation called “From Cowpaths to Mastodons,” and what I’m loving about it is that I made the presentation kind of out of nowhere and gave it instead of the original planned speech. I love that I can work on the fly. What I dislike about this is that it’s my first go at it. ...

I just got off the phone with a friend of mine (yes, I do have friends). He was calling to clear up some things that he heard on the radio. I’m going to attempt to layout his questions and then answer them: Tim: Hey Tom, is it true that banks have stopped lending money to anyone? Tom: Nope, that’s not true. Have restrictions tightened on all sorts of lending? Yes it has. Is it harder ...

The following editorial on SHORT SELLING was originally published in the New York Times on October 18, 1930. It is so relevant to the current environment, that I have decided to reproduce it here. What makes this so significant is that none of the issues have changed -- and the US Government seems to be increasingly heading down a path of "The ends justifies the means" form of intervention. Other than the names involved, one ...

Why: Why let the media pundits and political analysts have all the fun? You can now be an armchair critic, all you need is a twitter account, a TV, and internet access. [On the first Presidential Debate on Sept 26, 2008, YOU get to be the armchair political analyst and use Twitter to score the candidates] What is it: With the success of the previous Twitter SuperBowl ads rating last Jan, let’s repeat this community ...

The role of the Agencies in the current crisis is something that has come up in the Presidential campaign. It is also something that can be assessed using real data — including the recent Flow of Funds data produced by the Fed. I would argue that this data suggests a more complex story than is commonly told. The Agencies certainly played a role in turning US mortgages into an asset that credit risk adverse central ...

Filed under: Consumer experience, Scandals, Economic data, Politics, Headline news, Federal Reserve, RecessionHank Paulson is spending this morning on the talk show circuit trying to scare up $700 billion of our money. And he wants that money by tonight. Not only that, but he wants to be able to spend it without anyone ever being able to question his decisions. Paulson and his colleagues have already thrown $800 billion at the problem and that didn't ...

Filed under: PoliticsA review of the legislation sent from the Administration to Congress to create a fund for buying assets gives the Secretary of the Treasury extraordinary powers. Among those, and perhaps most stupendous is that "Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are nonreviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency." The proposal, in effect, eliminates most, if ...

The New York Times has the Text of Draft Proposal for Bailout Plan. Given this is legislation, under fair use terms, here is the complete draft. My thoughts follow.LEGISLATIVE PROPOSAL FOR TREASURY AUTHORITYTO PURCHASE MORTGAGE-RELATED ASSETSSection 1. Short Title.This Act may be cited as ____________________.Sec. 2. Purchases of Mortgage-Related Assets.(a) Authority to Purchase.--The Secretary is authorized to purchase, and to make and fund commitments to purchase, on such terms and conditions as determined by the ...

As the government’s efforts to save the financial system from impending ruin reached a high-water mark Friday, economists took a step back and offered tentative assessments of the Federal Reserve’s conduct through this year-long crisis. By and large, they say, the central bank, in conjunction with the Treasury Department, has responded appropriately to an unprecedented stream of crises, and has likely warded off a truly monumental meltdown. Bernanke To be sure, it is far from ...

It's hard to discern what took place in a closed-door session at a remove, but some of the tidbits coming from last weekend's Federal Reserve conference at Jackson Hole were worrisome. Note I didn't have this sense about last year's meetings, based on a reading of Jim Hamilton's commentary (which may simply mean Hamilton was charitable, but I suspect not).Nevertheless, even though I have only have some odd data points, they all seem to align. ...

Saving up for Kindle 2.0? You've got some time. New York Times writer Brad Stone interrupted his vacation to pick up the phone and actually ask Amazon PR dude Craig Berman when he could buy one of the new Kindles we've heard so much about recently: 'Don't believe everything you read,' Mr. Berman said. 'There's a lot of rumor and speculation about the Kindle. One thing I can tell you for sure is that there ...

Mortgage rates continue to fall slightly, but don't expected it to be the long-term trend.

Saving up for Kindle 2.0? You've got some time. New York Times writer Brad Stone interrupted his vacation to pick up the phone and actually ask Amazon PR dude Craig Berman when he could buy one of the new Kindles we've heard so much about recently: 'Don't believe everything you read,' Mr. Berman said. 'There's a lot of rumor and speculation about the Kindle. One thing I can tell you for sure is that there ...

Ok, maybe the question should be, “Can I refi?” Whether you can or cannot, the Fed’s (as in the Federal Reserve Board) just announced a new site for homeowners that is supposed to help them decide if it is better to refinance or stay with what they have. http://www.federa... It does contain some solid and useful information. It explains to the borrower how to compute their break even point, what LTV means, paying points and ...

Without the benefit of a more refined risk-based pricing structure, the Federal Housing Administration said earlier this week that it would hike its upfront mortgage premiums for all purchase money mortgages and full-credit qualifying refinances. In a letter to lenders, FHA said it would add 25 basis points to its mortgage premium, bringing the upfront [...]

"The lender carnage, death and destruction litter the home page of Aaron Krowne’s Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter like the beach at Normandy on D-Day. The infamous list has grown from September 2006 when Aaron started the website with approximately 10 failed lenders to a whopping 276 major U.S. failed lending operations today."

"If these two companies survive as private, beware. House prices will continue to fall, defaults, foreclosures and inventory will continue to surge, which causes house prices to fall and defaults, foreclosures and inventory to surge……."