Soc Gen: Meltdown Imminent (5)
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Barry Ritholtz (143)
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The Big Picture (433)
2 days, 3 hours
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When people try to figure out what was the cause of today's 344 point whackage, one of the items they will point to will be SocGen's alert today from Albert Edwards:***Alert****Economic and equity market meltdown imminent****Alert*** Last week saw the publication of Q2 US whole economy profits data. They were shockingly bad. Core measures of profitability are in free-fall and have now reached a tipping point, where corporate activity could easily implode. We have also ...
Q2 GDP = 3.3% (kinda) (2)
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Barry Ritholtz (143)
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The Big Picture (433)
6 days, 4 hours
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GDP is out, ticking higher to 3.3% rather than 2.7% And if you believe that data, I also have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn. Why the beat on the headline figure? Aside from the usual inflation nonsense, there were two other factors: Exports, which rose to 13.2% (versus earlier reported 9.2%) and Inventories, which also played a part in the apparent strength. My fishing buddy John Silvia of Wachovia put it into context: "The ...
Lehman in "Urgent" Talks to Close Deal Before Expected $4 Billion Writedown (2)
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Yves Smith (31)
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naked capitalism (31)
6 days, 8 hours
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When the Korea Development Bank had signaled that buying a stake in an investment bank might be premature at this juncture, it had appeared the bureaucrats had beaten back KDB's chairman and former head of Lehman's Seoul branch, Min-Euoo-song, who was pushing the deal. But the Telegraph tells us not only that negotiations are back on, but that Lehman appears desperate to cinch a deal before its earnings are announced in roughly two weeks.And no ...
Gold Sale Spurs Manipulation Talk (1)
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Michael Shedlock (16)
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (16)
1 week
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MarketWatch is reporting Gold Sale Spurs Manipulation TalkRecent heat from Congress and regulators, along with public speculation, over whether commodity prices are being manipulated has also reached gold pits, where the debate was stirred by a surge in bets last month that gold prices would fall."Congress is already investigating allegations of manipulation in the oil market, and it seems likely that it is only a matter of time before a similar investigation will be required ...
Wave of Option Repricing Coming? (3)
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pk (108)
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Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed (108)
1 week, 1 day
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Employee stock options at 1 in 10 Fortune 500 companies are essentially worthless, and stock options are currently underwater at 40% such companies. That is up from a little over 30% being underwater at the end of Q1, according to a new study. Some more specifics: Five of the ten most underwater companies are in financial services Freddie Mac has the most deeply underwater options, with 90% below its weighted average share price of August ...
Conspiracy Theory Psychology (1)
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Michael Shedlock (16)
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (16)
1 week, 2 days
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In recent posts I have taken a look at various conspiracy theories on the rise of the dollar, the shortage of silver, and the manipulation of gold. Here is a synopsis. (Warning, some of these are very lengthy)I discussed US dollar manipulation claims inAugust 08 Trichet Puts Spotlight on the Euro, DollarAugust 09 U.S. Dollar Rally ContinuesAugust 11 Currency Intervention And Other ConspiraciesIn The Great Gold, Silver Conspiracy Explained I took a look at many ...
Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius: Don’t Be Fooled by Inflation (1)
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Barry Ritholtz (143)
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The Big Picture (433)
1 week, 2 days
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This whole week, I've been out of the office, and of course, each data release is I didn't get a chance to review in real time had some significant hair on it. Case in point: Durable Goods Orders. Indeed, yesterday's rally was (ostensibly) attributed to the surprising strength in Durables. Only not so much. When you consider the price rises that were included, the strength vanishes.Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius: Durable Goods Orders: Don’t Be Fooled ...
Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius: Don’t Be Fooled by Inflation (1)
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Barry Ritholtz (143)
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The Big Picture (433)
1 week, 2 days
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This whole week, I've been out of the office, and of course, each data release is I didn't get a chance to review in real time had some significant hair on it. Case in point: Durable Goods Orders. Indeed, yesterday's rally was (ostensibly) attributed to the surprising strength in Durables. Only not so much. When you consider the price rises that were included, the strength vanishes.Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius: Durable Goods Orders: Don’t Be Fooled ...
Q2 GDP = 3.3% (2)
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Barry Ritholtz (143)
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The Big Picture (433)
1 week, 2 days
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GDP is out, ticking higher to 3.3% rather than 2.7% And if you believe that data, I also have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn. Why the beat on the headline figure? Aside from the usual inflation nonsense, there were two other factors: Exports, which rose to 13.2% (versus earlier reported 9.2%) and Inventories, which also played a part in the apparent strength. My fishing buddy John Silvia of Wachovia put it into context: "The ...
The Great Gold, Silver Conspiracy Explained (1)
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Michael Shedlock (16)
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis (16)
1 week, 2 days
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Gold and silver prices have crashed. Ted Butler, Rob Kirby, James Conrad and others are all blaming manipulation. Let's take a look at those manipulation theories starting with Ted Butler.Lessons of a Lifetime Here are a few excerpts from Ted Butler's Lessons of a Lifetime.The drastic sell-off in silver (and gold) is further proof of an ongoing manipulation to the downside. My comment: That is a rather interesting statement. Gold and silver did not act ...
What Global Rebalancing (aka The End of Foreign Funding Spree) Looks Like (2)
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Yves Smith (31)
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naked capitalism (31)
1 week, 3 days
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A very useful post comes from Robert Dekle, Jonathan Eaton, and Samuel S. Kortum at VoxEU. The authors steer clear of the "when will global imbalances end" question (as in when will China, Japan, Taiwan, and the Gulf States tire of funding our current account deficit) to focus on one at least as important: "what will it take to achieve rebalancing?"The analysis will warm the hearts of dollar bears and comes to a conclusion that ...
$100 Dash (1)
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$100 Dash (1)
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Credit Spreads Continue to Get Worse (1)
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Paul Hickey (0)
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Bespoke Investment Group (0)
1 week, 4 days
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FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair commented in a press conference this afternoon that she expects the credit markets to continue to worsen, and judging by the recent action in credit spreads, the market seems to agree. According to Merrill Lynch data, interest rates on investment grade corporate bonds are currently not only at higher levels than they were at the Bear...
Temasek’s undiminished appetite for banks (1)
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FT Alphaville (2)
1 week, 4 days
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Nice to see someone with unshakable faith in the bounce-back potential of the battered financial industry. After spending billions of dollars at the wrong price for shares in Merrill Lynch, Barclays et al, Singapore's state-backed investment body Temasek says it still "sees value" in banking stocks in the US and Britain,...
UBS slashes wage costs by a third (1)
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FT Alphaville (2)
1 week, 4 days
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UBS expects to cut its salary and bonus budget by about $4bn, or a third, as the Swiss firm adjusts its finances in the light of a reduced headcount and shrinking income from many of its core businesses. The bank, which has had to write down about $43bn since the outbreak of the credit crisis, attributed the decline largely to investment banking,...
